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The Anomalies of Rounds Played

The most frequently asked questions within the golf community over the past year has been: “When will the pandemic golf surge end?  How far ahead of 2019 (last “normal” year) will we be?  And will we retain the golfers who took up the game due to Covid restrictions?”  The good news is that rounds played continue to be well ahead of both 2020 and 2019 levels, and unless there is an unforeseen economic collapse and/or a catastrophic year weather wise in 2022, golf is in a much better place today than it was pre-pandemic.

Annual rounds played

The graph above indexes annual rounds played using 1999 as the base, because that was the first year Golf Datatech started collecting and projecting monthly rounds played.  Rounds played consistently trended lower in the US since the turn of the century, however it has been like a large bucket of water with a small hole, a constant drip.  Over the past 20 years, rounds played were down roughly 18%, so on trend to lose a little less than 1% per year.  Suddenly Covid hit, and the trajectory of the game changed.  In 2021, rounds played were back near all-time highs.

There is one clear “outlier” year between 1999 and 2019, and in fact, during that unusual year (2012), there was a very early spring and golf was played across the northern tier as early as February, and the good weather continued throughout the year.  Minimal drastic weather impacts meant a longer and steadier season than typically enjoyed, and in total the industry benefitted with additional play.

Because golf is played in the elements, weather is by far the most important of the variables impacting rounds.  Many overlook the positive impact weather had on 2020 results, a year featuring low precipitation and mild temperatures across much of the country during the summer months, transitioning into a long and golf friendly fall.  While it’s true that the pandemic created additional demand for tee times, a favorable weather situation provided significant tailwinds to accelerate the rapid growth.  Without the distractions of other activities (truncated/disjointed NFL and NCAA Football, no Kids sports, limited vacation travel, etc.), combined with good golfing weather, rounds surged to all-time highs in the summer/fall of 2020, leading many to ask how or if we could match those levels in 2021.

Early 2021 weather continued to be slightly better than normal on a national basis, however as summer waned and turned to fall, weather patterns deteriorated and negatively impacted rounds, exacerbating the shortfall comparisons vs. the massive numbers put on the board in 2020.

Where do rounds played stand vs. recent history?

In the depths of the lockdowns and early in the short lived Covid recession, common thinking suggested 2020 rounds would do well to get within 10% of 2019 levels. Then, as golf courses opened and people flocked to play because it was deemed to be a safe, socially distant, outdoor activity, expectations were adjusted to suggest “breaking even” would be a good outcome.  Soon after, there was the realization that a golfing tsunami was upon us, and 2020 rounds soared 14% higher vs. 2019, even after falling to near zero for two months during the spring.

Entering 2021, many industry insiders expected a massive surge in March and April vs. ‘20, which would be offset by a rapid drop in demand for tee times during the summer and fall, when rounds would comp against record levels of 2020 play in the immediate wake of the pandemic.

True to form, rounds played soared and stood 34% ahead of prior year thru April 2021.  Expectations were for a significant downturn heading into the busiest part of the season, and for a moment it looked like it might happen.  After a drop in May, rounds held relatively steady vs. 2020 into the summer and fall, with June-October rounds ranging from a gain of 0.8% to an 8% decline.  In the end, total 2021 rounds ended the year up 5.5%.

How do 2021 Rounds Compare to 2019?

After two years of significant improvement total rounds played are up close to 18% compared to 2019, the last year pre-pandemic year.

Looking Toward 2022

Predicting where rounds played will go in 2022 is as simple as simultaneously predicting how Covid-19 variants will evolve while accurately forecasting the weather for the next 12 months.  In other words, it’s impossible to do accurately.  However, there are some trends/metrics to keep an eye on:

-If 2022 rounds played can stay within 8% of 2021 levels, rounds will still be up double digits over 2019.

-Weather conditions will continue to be a critical component of how demand for rounds develops in 2022, and no one controls Mother Nature.

-If Covid outbreaks recede and “normal” pursuits resume, kids go to school, have their athletic, artistic, and school functions, people go out to dinner, travel, and go on vacations again, there may be fewer discretionary dollars and less time available for golf.  But a lot of those activities did come back, albeit briefly, during the summer of 2021, and rounds played remained strong.

-It’s worth noting that total 2021 demand (measured in rounds) was about 3% below peak levels attained in 2000, while the supply of golf courses is also slightly below where they were 20 years ago.  So, over the past two decades, supply and demand are in a very similar place to where they were prior to the massive expansion and contraction between 2002 and 2019.

 

Golf Datatech has been the sole source of monthly US rounds played data since 1999, giving us a unique perspective on the current state of the golf business.  If you own or operate a golf course and want to aid the golf industry by participating and providing your rounds monthly, please contact us at info@golfdatatech.com.  It costs nothing to participate, is totally confidential, and would greatly help the industry.